After years of sitting on the sidelines, investors from across Australia are turning their attention back to Melbourne, and the data suggests the timing could be significant.
New analysis from property advisory firm Oliver Hume has revealed that Melbourne’s housing market, after several years of subdued activity, is now the most affordable of any Australian capital city. It’s a dramatic shift from just five years ago, when Melbourne was either the most expensive or second most expensive city in the country.
According to Oliver Hume chief executive, Julian Coppini, that reversal is now starting to drive a fresh wave of buyer and investor interest into the market.
From Most Expensive to Most Affordable
The numbers tell a striking story. Oliver Hume’s chief economist, Matt Bell, noted that Melbourne had been sitting at 15-year lows for transaction volumes before early signs of recovery began to emerge.
Despite the prolonged downturn, the fundamentals supporting the market have continued to strengthen:
- Pent-up demand is building
- Affordability has improved relative to every other capital
- Population growth is once again accelerating
Oliver Hume is forecasting transaction volumes to rise around 20 per cent over the next year as confidence returns and investors move to take advantage of the pricing gap.
The shift is being felt most strongly from interstate. PIPA chair and buyer’s agent, Cate Bakos, confirmed that enquiries from outside Victoria have surged over the past year, with investors primarily targeting detached houses in the lower and middle price brackets – exactly the segment where Melbourne’s growth corridors offer the strongest value.
Why Melbourne’s Outer Growth Corridors Stand Out
While the recovery is taking shape across Melbourne, it’s the outer-growth suburbs that are particularly well positioned. These areas combine the affordability that interstate and first-home buyers are chasing with the infrastructure investment, population growth, and new housing supply that underpin long-term capital growth.
Mickleham is a standout example:
- Located 29 km from the Melbourne CBD and 15 km from Melbourne Airport
- Population growth from ~17,452 (2021) to 25,500+ (2024)
- Projected to exceed 42,000 by 2034
New schools, road upgrades, retail, and community infrastructure are all part of the suburb’s ongoing transformation. For buyers entering now, that means getting in ahead of the full infrastructure benefit being realised.
With Melbourne’s gross median lot price sitting around $407,000 according to Oliver Hume data – well behind South East Queensland at $483,600 – the value proposition in suburbs like Mickleham is hard to overlook, particularly for interstate investors who have watched their own markets run hard over the past three years.
Early Signs of a New Cycle
Cate Bakos noted that Melbourne appears to be entering the early stages of its next property cycle, though the market remains segmented, with some sectors recovering faster than others.
REIA president, Jacob Caine, echoed this, pointing out that while Victoria’s regulatory and tax environment has weighed on local investor sentiment, interstate buyers are increasingly viewing the state as a value opportunity.
Melbourne’s long-term fundamentals remain intact:
- Strong amenity and liveability
- Established transport infrastructure
- Tight rental demand
For those looking at the bigger picture, the current pricing window — particularly in well-located growth corridors — may represent the kind of entry point that looks very different in hindsight.
What This Means for Buyers at Woodsong
For families and investors considering Melbourne’s northern growth corridor, Woodsong in Mickleham offers a compelling entry point into one of the city’s most talked-about growth areas.
Developed by HB Land, Woodsong is a masterplanned community designed around the kind of lifestyle, space, and connectivity that today’s buyers are actively seeking out, featuring:
- A new primary school next door
- Wetlands and open green spaces throughout the masterplan
- NBN FTTP connectivity
- Proximity to Craigieburn’s established retail and transport links
The Marathon Wetlands Release is currently selling, offering lots opposite future wetlands and just 150 metres from Gamadji Primary School.
Conclusion
Melbourne’s position in the national property landscape has fundamentally shifted. What was once Australia’s most expensive market is now its most affordable capital, and investors from across the country are starting to act on that. For buyers ready to move, the combination of improved affordability, rising demand, and strong growth fundamentals in suburbs like Mickleham makes this a window worth paying attention to.
Explore land for sale at Woodsong or get in touch with the team to find out what’s currently available.